Ray Manning

A Localized Method for Predicting Crime Levels

As opposed to a cellular automata approach to predicting crime which assumes that neighbor crime levels effect other neighborhood crime levels, an independent approach was taken where each neighborhood is not affected by neighboring areas. Instead, a second order system is matched to historical crime statistics for each neighborhood (independent of neighboring areas).

Read the full report here.

A Cellular Automata Approach to Crime

Can cellular automata be used to predict crime levels? A cellular automata model for the crime levels in Long Beach was used to predict future crime levels. The approach assumes that crime in one district is related to crime levels in the past from its own district and neighboring districts.

Read the full report here.

Beating the Market with Mutual Funds

Can you really beat the generic stock market as indicated by an index mutual fund?

Read the full report here.

How Decarceration Affects Crime Rates

In the last ten years or so there has been a growing movement for the decarceration of non-violent prisoners in order to reduce overcrowding of the prisons. Part of this movement was due to lawsuits brought about to reduce overcrowding and part was due to a rethink in terms of how we treat non-violent offenders. Perhaps a prison sentence isn't the best long term solution for non-violent offenders despite the political actions taken in the United States in the 1980s and 1990s regarding these offenders.

Asked a different way, how much does it cost to make the playoffs? At the root of this question is how many wins are needed to make the playoffs?

Read the full report here.

How Many Wins Are needed to Make the MLB Playoffs?

The main point of moneyball (i.e., baseball sabermetrics) is to determine ways to win Major League Baseball (MLB) games and get into the playoffs with a limited budget. And how to select undervalued players based upon the needs of the team.

Asked a different way, how much does it cost to make the playoffs? At the root of this question is how many wins are needed to make the playoffs?

Read the full report here.

Where do States Spend Money?

All of us complain about taxes and wonder where that money goes. Is it being spent on things that the state needs? Is it being spent efficiently? Which states spend the most on pension, education, healthcare, or prisons?

Spending levels for each state were obtained and broken down into a number of categories. See how your state spends.

Read the full report complete with and maps here.

Child Abuse Study

A study was performed relating the number of cases of child abuse to various demographic indicators. The study utilized the demographics of the states and correlations of child abuse incidence with the demographic statistics.

Unlike opioid and drug overdose deaths, child abuse rates are harder to pin down in terms of root cause and the demographics of child abuse. Whereas drug overdose deaths are typically driven by unemployment frequent physical distress, the lack of "attractive alternatives", and despair, child abuse rates defy classification and categorization. Perhaps county-level data would tell a different story. We're going to continue investigating.

Read the full report complete with graphs and maps here.

Market Analysis and Predictions

An historical price matching algorithm and future price prediction tool for the various stock market indices were derived. The matching and prediction tool utilized linear second order differential equations along with genetic and gradient-based algorithms to drive optimal second order oscillator parameters as well as external stimuli levels. Some assumptions were made for future external stimuli and the resulting future prediction levels were obtained. The report from this study will be available here soon.

Opioid Overdose Study

Ray performed a detailed opiod overdose addiction study. The study was a combined geogrpahical and statistical study to try and correlate the incidence of opioid overdose levels with geographic locations and demographic paramaters. The results of the study are available at the Esri external site at this location.

Crytocurrency Price Analysis

An historical price matching algorithm and future price prediction tool for the various cryptocurrencies were derived. The matching and prediction tool utilized linear second order differential equations along with genetic and gradient-based algorithms to drive optimal second order oscillator parameters as well as external stimuli levels. Some assumptions were made for future external stimuli and the resulting future prediction levels were obtained.

Final section on future predictions to be added shortly.