Content-type: text/html Ray Manning

Monday, January 25, 2021 8:02 PM

Dry January

Though I don't have any nightmares, I have difficulty sleeping on Monday night into Tuesday morning. After being awake for an hour, I get out of bed at 5:30 am and get ready to go walking. I tape up all of my blisters and go walk for 75 minutes. How come every pair of shoes has been giving me blisters for the past year or two and require me to tape my feet up before walking or running? After a shower I work on scrubbing the shower tile and cleaning the glass enclsoure. Then get to the grocery store for some supplies. I vow to get the voting strategy writeup done in the next day or so. What I write is very rich in insight, but is time consuming. However I just keep plugging away and am surprised each time that I check the clock and see that it is so early (because I started the day so early). Just after noon I need a "pick me up" so I go work the abdominals, lower back, and core muscles. Then get the second shower of the day with some more tile scrubbing. And the rest of the day slowly drifts away with some Netflix and some voring strategy writing.

On Wednesday and Thursday I start each day with good bicycle rides to the old yacht club and back home. I also get in a lot of tasks around the house like maintaining the garage door, mowing the lawn, trimming the carnations, going to the library for three new books, and installing a battery tender on the Yamaha YZF-R1. I find a couple more good references that I can use for the voter strategy writeup but I don't make any significant progress on finishing it up. I'm certainly happy with the results and the quantitative and qualitative assessments, but I just need to "get it out there".

I'm out of bed at 6:20 om Friday morning to finsh writing up the voting strategy paper and to gether the demographic data for the second part of the article. I finally fiish the writeup and get it online for people's reading pleasure and thought. Just after 10am I take the motorcycle down to my health center to refill a prescription and make another stop on the way home. I get in a good workout with the weights (with no joint pain since last year). After a shower I watch the movie "Seven Boxes" from Paraguay and catch up on the news. My friend Ashley has seen my article online and she calls and we talk for more than an hour about many different subjects. And then I work on the demographics collection and parsin before reading and sleep.

I start Saturday out the door at 7am for a good road bicycle ride. It takes me a few miles to get going, but then I get a move on and finish up 60 kilometers. I grab a quick shower and get out the door to get gasoline for the World Rally Car, buy a lottery ticket for tonight's big jackpot, and grab some supplies at the grocery store. Back at home I parse down the big giant file of amny demographic statistics to a candidate list of twenty that I can start working with. I get this done and plot some linear regression plots of voting choice vs demographic metric. I'll start with linear regression and see if anything sticks out. By 1:30 I've had enough and I go watch football for most of the remaining day.

On Sunday I get out the door at 6:50 am for a mountain bicycle ride to the end of the ocean trail and back home. With the high pressure over us and the warmer temperatures, it is easier to get out riding earlier. But the cold weather is coming back soon. Today is a slow day as I watch football and don't think about the voting strategy algorithm - take some time away from it to let the ideas simmer.

I have slightly "lost" days on Monday and Tuesday. I certainly get in a good workout with the weights and a good bicycle ride. And I do a lot of little things around the house. But the Monday work on the web-viewer doesn't see me accomplish anything and I'm not ready to jump back into the voting demographics on Tuesday.

Wednesday starts with a good 70 minute walk. After a shower I read the news and the markets. Later there is a CSULA Zoom conference call with advisors and I'm a bit disappointed that nobody is taking charge. I try to push things forward as best as I can. After the call I go work the abdominals, lower back, and core muscles. And then feed the roses and carnations and rake some leaves. Maybe one more leaf raking next week and this effort will be done for the season. I grab some data that a friend has presented to me and wants some help interpreting the data. So I do some calculations and toss out some theories and send a writeup back to him for some discussion.

I wake up in the middle of Wednesday night with a dream that I cannot get out of my head. It's not a nightmare, but just a dream. But I keep going over and over with it. Thus I'm a bit late geeting out of bed on Thursday morning. I'm out the door for cycling at 7:20am and have a good ride to the old yacht club and back home. I immediately go into trimming the neighbor's violet bush one one side of the yard and a different tree/bush from a different neighbor on the other side of the yard. Both had grown healthily and were overhaning the fenes enough to warrant trimming. After a shower I check out the markets and news. At mid afternoon I get out and lay down some granular weed killer for the roses and sideyard in advance of Friday night's expected rain. And the day disappears from there - with no coding taking place as I let my problems simmer.

I start Friday with another bicycle ride since there is rain expected for Saturday. After the ride I get cleaned up and start in on errands: the ATM, Home Depot, CVS pharmacy, and the grocery store. Back at home I read the news and markets and try to get an SSL fixed. Just after noon I get outside and give myself a haircut - fully expecting to tidy it up on Saturday after I get a good look at it. The rest of the day is lost to phonecalls and some reading and some Netflix.

It's wet on Saturday morning so I start back up on coding the voting strategy effort. Since I've let this sit for a few days, I now have some ideas on how to handle the probabilistic nature of the demographics and the vote. So I work on coding that up though it will certainly take more than just Sunday. Near noon I get out and have a great session with the weights by adding on an extra set for each body part. After a shower I grab lunch and watch some television. Later in the day I go back to coding and I'm about ready to derive the probabilistic model (after setting up the framework earlier today). I sure hope this yields reasoanble results.

Sunday starts with a wet mountain bicycle ride to the old yacht club and back to home. When I get home I start degreasing the bicycle's running gear and chain and wash the bicycle. As I'm running through the gears the rear derailleur cable snaps. So I'll take the mountain bicycle in for a service since the crank bearings have been making a clicking sound for a while. I get cleaned up and waste some time and then watch the football games. During the football games I have a series of phone calls totaling three hours with Person Ha_KY. And later I look through the voting strategy code but don't see anything amiss. So why am I not likng the results or am I misinterpreting them.

Monday is wet so I don't go out cycling. Instead I start coding and eventually find an error that I made. I fix the error and now I'm getting convergence to more expected results. The results are not good enough yet to tell a good story. But this is progress. I take time to have a great session with the weights where I've increased the weights. After a shower I take the Yamaha YZF-R1 for a thirty minute ride despite servere winds that have picked up. And later I look through the voting strategy results and try to plan a course of action to get more refined results.